I wasted 100-200 hours on Europa Universalis II, a 2003 game. It's very good. The basic idea is similar to Total War's: depending on the period and conditions, you can create an empire, build a viable economy etc. The biggest difference from Total War games is the lack of direct-control battles. If you need a more recent one try Europa Universalis III. I haven't tried it myself, but the concept doesn't change much over the years. Another strategy I liked, but found it too short was World in Conflict. It's not a hardcore game such as HoI or EU, and the scale of the battles is reduced to roughly one-two battalions. If you want to spend more time, though, you'd better find another game, cause WiC's replayability is mostly in multiplayer. Not long ago I also played Blitzkrieg, another very addictive game from 2003 in WWII. It's based on the Sudden Strike series, but from my discussions with Mighty Midget it seems Blitzkrieg has the advantage of random battles between the main historical ones. This increases replayability. No economy management here, just like in World in Conflict. Again if you need something from the period you noted, try Blitzkrieg II, but I didn't get to play this one.
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Don't think about the probabilities. The smallest chance can take us a long way forward. It's not like we have anything else to lose.
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